In January 2020, Indonesia banned the export of raw nickel ore. Overnight, the world's largest nickel producer stopped shipping the metal that makes stainless steel, EV batteries, and half the things in your kitchen.

The bet was simple. You want our nickel? Build a factory here. Process it on our soil. Hire our workers.

It worked. Within three years, Chinese smelters had built dozens of plants across Sulawesi and Maluku. Indonesia went from raw ore exporter to the world's biggest nickel refiner. Export revenue tripled.

Now Malaysia is running the same play — with rare earths.

In 2024, Malaysia banned exports of raw rare earths. No unprocessed ore leaves the country. The goal: force foreign investment into domestic refining, just like Indonesia did with nickel. At the time, few people noticed.

But the rare earth market moved faster than Malaysia planned. China's export controls started a global scramble for supply. And Malaysia has what everyone wants — ionic clay deposits loaded with heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium. The kind that go into magnets for jet engines and guided missiles. The kind that China has been cutting off.

So the pressure is building from every direction. Deputy Minister Syed Ibrahim Syed Noh told Bloomberg this month that American, Australian, French, and Indian buyers are all lining up. States within Malaysia want mining revenue. Foreign investors want access to the ore.

The government is now weighing a narrow fix. Small exports, tied to research and development. Any buyer would have to invest in Malaysian refining and transfer technology back. The ore goes out, but the know-how comes in. It's the same deal Indonesia offered — with strings attached.

And Malaysia has one card that Indonesia never had. It doesn't just mine rare earths. It also hosts Lynas's Gebeng plant — the largest rare earth refinery outside China. Malaysia already has refining. What it wants now is more of it, and more investors willing to build the next plant.

The question is timing. Open the door too wide, and raw ore flows out with nothing coming back. Keep it shut too tight, and buyers go somewhere else. Brazil already has ionic clay projects moving ahead. Canada just sent a drill crew to Labrador for heavy rare earths.

Syed Ibrahim didn't give a date for a decision. But with China's controls still tightening and the November 10 snapback deadline closing in, every month of waiting costs Malaysia a deal.

Indonesia proved that resource bans can work — if you're patient enough. Malaysia is testing whether the same trick works when the whole world is in a hurry.

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The war in Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz this year, choking off a quarter of the world's sulphur supply. Sulphur makes sulphuric acid — the chemical used to pull rare earths from ore. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence says sulphur prices have climbed more than 50%, and acid prices have more than doubled, topping $380 per tonne in Indonesia and $440 in Chile. The group estimates over half of global rare earth production is now exposed to these supply shocks. For Australian ionic clay projects targeting heavy rare earths, acid is the biggest operating cost — and there's no sign of relief.

SAGA Metals (TSXV: SAGA) has moved crews, equipment, and camp to its Wolverine project in Labrador, Canada. Drilling starts mid-August. The target: heavy rare earths — the dysprosium and terbium that go into high-temperature magnets for jets and missiles. Most Canadian rare earth projects chase lights, but Wolverine is one of the few aimed at heavies, which are the hardest to source outside China and Myanmar. SAGA completed its full purchase of the property in July and expects first drill results by September.

After July's broad rally, most rare earths gave back ground in early August. Shanghai Metals Market data shows 13 of 19 tracked elements declined, with dysprosium falling 11.6% to $231.35/kg and terbium dropping 7.19% to $1,094.68/kg. The standout was erbium oxide, up 17.6% — driven by fiber-optic demand that runs on a different cycle than the magnet metals. NdPr alloy held near flat at $133.67/kg, barely budging after July's sharp 21% jump. Until China's MIIT releases its second-half mining quotas, supply expectations for the rest of 2026 stay uncertain.

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Syed Ibrahim Syed Noh, Deputy Minister for Natural Resources & Environmental Sustainability, Malaysia - Bloomberg
August, 2026

Praseodymium never gets top billing — neodymium takes all the credit. But the two are always mined and sold together as NdPr, the alloy that makes the permanent magnets in every EV motor, wind turbine, and phone speaker on earth. Pr makes up about a quarter of NdPr by weight and gives the magnet the corrosion resistance that defense and auto buyers demand. This month, Pr metal gained 3.46% to $154.35/kg on Shanghai Metals Market while most of the rare earth basket fell. NdPr demand is structural — as long as the world builds more electric motors, praseodymium rides along.

Power Minerals (ASX: PNN) reported assays from its maiden drilling at Morro do Ferro in Minas Gerais, Brazil. The first hole returned 116 metres at 4.78% TREO from surface. That's among the highest grades posted by a Brazilian rare earth project this year.

— Mining.com.au

The Queensland government released its 2026–2030 critical minerals strategy with A$146 million in budget funding. The plan targets domestic refining and manufacturing capacity across the entire supply chain. Minister Dale Last said geopolitical uncertainty and export restrictions drove the decision.

— Australian Mining

China's MIIT typically releases second-half mining and smelting quotas in August or September. As of early August, no announcement has been published. The delay leaves the biggest open question over rare earth supply for the rest of 2026 and adds uncertainty to every price forecast in the market.

— rare-earth-mining.com

Evolution Metals & Technologies (Nasdaq: EMAT) took delivery of five metric tonnes of NdPr metal sourced from Vietnam. The shipment marks the first non-China feedstock for the company's defense-grade magnet production line in South Korea. We've been tracking EMAT's ex-China supply push since it first signed the Vietnam agreement back in July — this is that plan turning into physical metal.

— GlobeNewswire