Cleveland, Ohio. 1872.

John D. Rockefeller sat in his office at Standard Oil and studied a list. Not a list of markets or prices. A list of names. Every independent oil refiner in the country who could threaten his grip on the business.

He didn't wait for them to grow. He went after them one by one. He cut secret deals with the railroads so his rivals paid double to ship their oil. He bought refineries at a discount when the owners couldn't compete. And if someone refused to sell, he dropped his prices until they went broke.

Within a decade, Standard Oil controlled 90% of American refining. Rockefeller didn't build that lead by making better oil. He built it by making sure nobody else could survive long enough to challenge him.

On June 22, Beijing did something Rockefeller would have understood. China's Ministry of Commerce put 10 American companies on its export control list, including the two that matter most: MP Materials and USA Rare Earth. These are not random firms. They are the two companies the United States has bet its entire rare earth future on. MP runs the only active rare earth mine in America. USA Rare Earth is building the country's first end-to-end magnet supply chain. Both have received hundreds of millions in federal support.

China also barred its own state buyers from doing business with 46 U.S. companies. And it set up a public hotline where citizens can report anyone smuggling critical minerals out of the country. That's three moves in one week — cut off the two biggest Western competitors, wall off state purchasing, and recruit the public to police the borders.

The effect was felt fast. A survey by the U.S.-China Business Council found that some critical minerals have become nearly impossible to get from China, even with a license. MP Materials stock fell 13% in the weeks after the announcement. And two days later, the legal fight between MP and USA Rare Earth went public in the Wall Street Journal. MP is accusing USA Rare Earth of stealing magnet process know-how, a claim USA Rare Earth denies.

That lawsuit says more than either company wants it to. The real scarcity in rare earths is no longer in the ground. It's in the factories — in the people and processes that turn raw oxide into a finished magnet. China knows this. Which is why they're not just restricting exports of ore. They're going after the companies trying to learn how to do what China already does.

Rockefeller killed his competitors before they could grow. China is running the same play, 150 years later, with different metals and higher stakes.

The President of the United States banned one company's technology.

The Secretary of Defense called it a national security threat.

Then something strange happened.

The Pentagon kept using it anyway. In the middle of a shooting war.

Under oath, the Pentagon's own CIO said it on the record:

"The use of the system is active right now."

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Ottawa and Tokyo are in talks over joint mining projects, off-take deals, and shared stockpiling for critical minerals. Canada has the ore. Japan has the refining know-how and the desperate need — it still depends on China for most of its rare earths. Reuters reported that the two countries are looking at options that would give Japan guaranteed supply and give Canada a committed buyer. It's the first time two allied nations have discussed pooling reserves this way since the G7 set its target of cutting China dependence below 60% by 2030.

The Department of Energy picked five projects across the country to test whether rare earths can be pulled from coal waste and coal ash at a cost that makes sense. One of them, at the University of North Dakota, uses acid extraction on lignite coal. The idea is old — coal contains trace amounts of rare earths — but the funding is new. If even one of these projects works at scale, it would create a domestic source of rare earths that doesn't need a single new mine.

Iluka Resources locked in a A$1.65 billion loan from the Australian government for its Eneabba rare earth refinery in Western Australia. The loan is non-recourse, which means if the project fails, the government eats the loss — not Iluka. That's how badly Canberra wants a refinery outside of China. Eneabba is designed to separate heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium, the metals that keep EV magnets from losing power in extreme heat. Outside China, only Lynas does this at scale from its Malaysian plant. Eneabba would add a second Western source. The A$1.65 billion loan is one of the biggest single bets any Western government has made on rare earth refining.

Jack Lifton, Co-Chair of the Critical Minerals Institute, InvestorNews
July 5, 2026

Every time you hear "neodymium magnet," praseodymium is right there beside it. The two metals are almost always mined and sold together as NdPr oxide — the base material for the permanent magnets inside EV motors, wind turbines, and guided missiles. Praseodymium makes magnets more resistant to corrosion and demagnetization. It also shows up in aircraft engines and in the characteristic yellow tint of welder's glass. The price sits at $122 per kilogram, up 52% this year and up 170% since January 2020. It tracks neodymium almost tick for tick. If you own rare earths, you own this metal whether you know it or not.

REalloys (Nasdaq: ALOY) closed a $100 million private placement to fund its rare earth alloy and metal production in the United States. The company fills the gap between raw oxide and finished magnet alloy — the step in the supply chain where China's lead is widest.

— Mining.com

Greenland's government rejected Energy Transition Minerals' request to renew its exploration licence for the Kvanefjeld deposit, one of the world's largest known rare earth resources. The decision was based on a 2021 law that banned uranium and radioactive mineral mining. Kvanefjeld contained both rare earths and uranium, and the government chose to keep the ban in place.

— Mining.com

Aclara Resources received environmental approval for its Penco Module rare earths project in Chile after a process that took more than four years. The project sits on ionic clay deposits — a type of ore that is easier to process than hard rock. Until now, those clays were found almost only in China and Southeast Asia.

— Mining.com

Beijing launched a hotline where citizens and companies can report export control violations, including transshipment of critical minerals. The Ministry of Commerce said the system covers all restricted minerals. It's the clearest sign yet that China views its export controls as a long-term policy, not a short-term trade tactic.

— Reuters via Mining.com