PRICING

One Metal, Two Prices

September 2010.

Tokyo and Beijing were fighting over a string of rocky islands in the East China Sea. China did what no one expected. It cut off rare earth exports to Japan.

Prices surged over the following months, with some elements rising tenfold or more. Factories scrambled for supply. Some lines went idle. The rest of the world watched and did nothing.

That crisis lasted two months. Japan learned from it. Over the next decade, Tokyo poured billions into recycling, new materials, and mines in Australia. The rest of the world said it would do the same. Most of it never happened.

Now it is happening again, only bigger. In April 2025, China put export controls on seven heavy rare earths. Only firms with a Chinese export license can ship them. And the rules go past the border: magnets made anywhere in the world need a Chinese license if they contain 0.1% or more Chinese rare earths by value.

Even under the partial truce that came later, China's global exports of dysprosium and terbium are running about half of normal. That squeeze made two prices for the same metal. Inside China, dysprosium costs about $262 per kilogram. Outside China, in Europe, that same kilogram now costs $2,250 — an eightfold jump, per Nikkei Asia. Terbium is up fivefold.

These are not niche lab metals. Dysprosium goes into every EV motor and wind turbine. Terbium keeps the magnets inside those motors stable at high heat. Without them, the motor fails.

Which is why the price gap matters so much. It is not just a number. It is the cost of one country owning the refining chain for metals the whole world needs.

The Pentagon saw this split forming. Last month, it put up $1.225 billion in conditional loan commitments to two firms. Phoenix Tailings got a $500 million conditional loan commitment for a new refining plant it calls the Freedom Facility. Energy Fuels got a $725 million conditional loan commitment to expand its White Mesa Mill in Utah and build a new rare earth metals and alloy facility. The money is real. But neither firm has broken ground.

That is the timing problem. Western refining at scale is five to ten years away. China built its lead over thirty years.

And one more thing. China's industry ministry usually puts out its second-half mining quotas in August or September. As of this week, no word has come. Tighter quotas mean higher prices. Wider quotas could cap the rally.

Every buyer outside China is waiting on one call from one office in Beijing. Until that changes, there are two markets and one country setting the terms.

SPONSORED

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ALSO THIS WEEK

CORPORATE

USA Rare Earth Names Serra Verde CEO as New Chief

USA Rare Earth (Nasdaq: USAR) named Thras Moraitis as its next CEO, starting October 1. He takes over from Barbara Humpton, who is retiring after exactly one year. Moraitis runs Serra Verde, the Brazilian rare earth mine that USAR agreed to buy for $2.8 billion in April. Serra Verde is the only large-scale producer outside Asia of all four magnet rare earths: neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium. The deal should close by late August. Putting the Serra Verde chief in charge says one thing: USAR is betting its future on that mine, and it wants the man who built it running the show. USAR also named board chair Michael Blitzer as executive chairman, effective right away.

MINING

Critical Metals Makes Final Three for Kenya's Mrima Hill

Critical Metals Corp (Nasdaq: CRML) made the final three in Kenya's tender for Mrima Hill, one of the largest untapped rare earth and niobium deposits in the world. The site sits on Kenya's southern coast with direct port access, an edge that most inland African mines do not have. Critical Metals already holds a 92.5% stake in Tanbreez in Greenland, one of the biggest untapped rare earth deposits on the planet. A win in Kenya would give one firm major rare earth projects on two continents and a second supply path that does not run through China. The company says it will share updates as the tender moves toward a final call.

GEOPOLITICS

UN Security Council Holds Session on Critical Minerals

The UN Security Council held a formal session on critical minerals on July 22 in New York. Secretary-General Guterres opened by saying demand for these minerals will triple by 2030. The debate asked a simple question: can the minerals that power clean energy also bring peace? In the Congo, cobalt mining has fueled violence for years. That question is not abstract. No resolutions passed. But rare earths and lithium now sit on the same agenda as wars and sanctions. That alone tells you how far and how fast this topic has moved.

SPONSORED

Big Oil knew about this for 50 years

In the 1970s, Chevron, Unocal, and Texaco all drilled for the same energy source.

It worked.

They walked away anyway.

Why? Because tapping it would have threatened the most profitable business model in human history. Oil.

So the verdict stood for fifty years: “We can’t get to it.”

Not because they couldn’t. Because they wouldn’t.

Now one company has spent sixty years quietly proving them wrong.

Google just signed a 15-year contract.

Bill Gates just wrote a $100 million check.

And on August 18th, the government hands this energy source its biggest advantage ever.

The oil companies are scrambling back in. But one company already owns the entire chain.

"A world powered by renewables is a world hungry for critical minerals."

António Guterres, UN Secretary-General
July 22, 2026

Pr

PRASEODYMIUM

Half the magnet, none of the fame

You almost never hear about praseodymium on its own. It always shows up bonded to neodymium in the same ore. Miners sell them as a pair called NdPr oxide. Magnet makers buy them as a pair too. Roughly one in five rare earth atoms in a NdFeB magnet is praseodymium. At $245.40 per kilogram, it is up 70% this year and up roughly 70% since January 2020. It goes into every EV motor, wind turbine, and pair of earbuds you own. Neodymium gets the fame. Praseodymium does half the work. Without it, the magnets that move the world do not get made. And right now, there is no good substitute.

SPONSORED

They raised $30B. Forgot one door.

The most valuable AI company on Earth just raised $30 billion in a single round.

BlackRock got in.

Fidelity got in.

Goldman Sachs. JPMorgan. Morgan Stanley.

All in.

You were never allowed in the room.

Except there's a door they forgot to lock.

One publicly traded company quietly owns a $135 billion stake in this forbidden company.

Last quarter, the hidden stake grew more in value than the company earned from its actual business.

You can buy it this afternoon. Any brokerage account. No minimums. No accreditation.

AROUND THE MARKET

Trump Renews Greenland Rare Earth Push at NATO Summit

Trump told NATO leaders in Ankara on July 8 that Greenland is needed for protection of the world. He pointed to US troops on the island in World War II and called the postwar handover to Denmark a mistake. Greenland holds the Tanbreez deposit, one of the world's largest untapped rare earth finds. Critical Metals Corp owns a 92.5% stake in the project. Denmark says it is not for sale.

— Mining.com

China's Second-Half Mining Quota Still Missing

China's industry ministry usually puts out second-half rare earth mining and smelting quotas in August or September. As of late July, no word has come. The delay matters because the first-half quota sets the supply cap for the whole market. Buyers are waiting to see which way Beijing leans.

— Rare Earth Exchanges

Japan Commits $238 Million to Rare Earth Recycling

Japan's environment ministry set aside 37.9 billion yen, about $238 million, in its FY2026 budget for metal and rare earth recycling. Daikin, Shin-Etsu, Hitachi, and Tokyo Eco Recycle are building gear to pull magnets from used air conditioner parts. Daikin aims to collect about 10,000 units a year. Full-scale work starts this year.

— Fastmarkets

IEA: Supply Chain Risks Have Grown, Not Shrunk

The IEA's latest Global Critical Minerals Outlook says supply chain risks have grown, not shrunk. China still controls around 85 percent of all rare earth refining output. The agency says joint stockpiles could cut the risk at what it calls modest cost. The 2026 report also found that prices for many critical minerals have bounced back after last year's dip.

— IEA via Strategic Metals Invest

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