Count the days. January 1 is 71 days away. That is when the Pentagon's ban on Chinese magnets in weapons kicks in — not just the final part, but every step from ore to magnet. Nine days after that, on January 10, the U.S.-China trade truce could expire. Two walls closing in at once.

Start with the gap. Last year, America needed about 48,000 tons of rare earth magnets. It made 300. That is less than 1%. China made the rest — more than 90% of the world's supply comes from one country. That has been true for a decade, and the gap hasn't moved.

The new DFARS rule changes what counts. Before, it only covered the last few steps of making a magnet. Now it covers the full chain. Mining. Refining. Metal-making. The finished part. If any link runs through China, Russia, Iran, or North Korea, a contractor can't deliver that magnet to the Pentagon. And in July, the White House told the Pentagon to stop handing out waivers once the deadline hits. No more excuses. No more pointing at slow paperwork and buying from China anyway.

Then comes January 10. When Xi visited Washington in September, most people expected a six-month truce deal. They got four months. If the truce ends, China's export controls snap back. Firms tied to foreign armies get denied. Magnets with even trace amounts of Chinese rare earths need Beijing's sign-off to ship.

So on Day 1, you need magnets that never touched China. On Day 10, China could cut off the supply. Either way, you need a source outside China whose stuff has been tested, qualified, and approved.

REalloys (NASDAQ: ALOY) is racing to be that source. They began qualifying defense-grade dysprosium and terbium in June. First material from the Saskatchewan Research Council could come this quarter. From there it goes to a metal plant in Ohio. The full chain stays in North America. That is what DFARS now demands — a clean path from mine to magnet, with no stops in China along the way.

Here is the catch. REEx says up to 80% of rare earth oxides on spot markets outside China may trace back to Chinese supply shipped through third countries. Even material labeled "non-Chinese" might not pass. The Pentagon isn't just asking where the magnet was made. It is asking where the ore was dug up. The clock is at 71 days. Lockheed, RTX, and General Dynamics have the most work left to do.

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Volta Metals just doubled its rare earth resource at Springer in Ontario. The new estimate puts it at 122.4 million tonnes, up 116% from February. That makes it one of North America's five largest rare earth deposits by tonnage. The high-grade core grew 140% to 27.6 million tonnes at 1% total rare earth oxides. Volta also gave a first gallium count — about 4,427 tonnes sitting in the same rock. No value has been put on the gallium yet. A study on the project's economics is due in the first half of 2027.

China Rare Earth (000831.SZ) said this week that profits for the first nine months of 2026 could be up 89% to 141% over last year. Net profit is on track for RMB 363–463 million. The drivers: rising rare earth prices and helpful state policy. It follows a similar call from China Northern Rare Earth two weeks ago. Both firms are riding the same wave — strong NdPr prices and steady EV motor demand. China's biggest rare earth companies are making money. Everyone else is still spending it.

China's rare earth market split in two this week. PrNd oxide fell 3,000 yuan per tonne on Monday. Weaker futures pulled prices down, and sellers stopped holding firm. Gadolinium slid with it. But holmium oxide rose 5,000 yuan per tonne. Erbium matched it. Both were lifted by export orders from outside China. Terbium and dysprosium held flat. SMM says the holmium and erbium gains may stick if export demand holds up, but PrNd needs new orders from downstream buyers to stop falling. The split tells you something. Light rare earths are tracking Chinese demand. Some heavy rare earths are tracking foreign demand. Two markets. Two directions.

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China made roughly 90% of the world's sintered permanent magnets in 2025. Rare Earth Exchanges surveyed six established North American motor suppliers – including Kollmorgen, Moog, and Allient – describing them as a real chokepoint in the supply chain. Separately, the US robotics industry installed about 38,000 new industrial robots in 2025, up 11% year-on-year, per IFR-sourced reporting.

— Rare Earth Exchanges

LME Week's Day 4 – October 20, not today – carried the heaviest critical-minerals slate of the week: the Critical Materials Forum (MMTA and Project Blue), the EBRD's "Unlocking Critical Raw Materials Investment," the Benchmark Summit, the Mining & Critical Minerals Europe Conference, and the China Nonferrous Metals Forum London, among others. No Argus Critical Minerals Forum or Canada-UK Chamber session appears on the official Day 4 agenda.

— LME / MMTA

Argus assessed dysprosium oxide (CIF Europe, min 99.5%) at $2,500–3,000/kg – up 194% since the start of 2026 and up 882% since China's April 2025 export controls (not October 2025). Erbium oxide jumped 159% in the week immediately after the October 9, 2025 controls were announced, then retreated once a 12-month suspension was announced on November 10, 2025; it now trades at $120–160/kg CIF Europe, up 87% since the start of April 2026.

— MMTA / Argus

USA Rare Earth (USAR) fell 4.3% on Monday, October 19, trading as low as $10.06 before settling near $10.09, versus a prior close of $10.54 – well below both its 50-day ($16.03) and 200-day ($19.11) moving averages.

— MarketBeat