June 25, 2015. A conference room in Toronto. The board of Molycorp, the company that was supposed to end America's dependence on Chinese rare earths, voted to file for bankruptcy. They owed $1.7 billion. Their mine at Mountain Pass, California — the only rare earth mine in the country — would later sell for $20.5 million. Pennies on the dollar.

That mine is running again. MP Materials bought it out of bankruptcy and turned it into the largest rare earth operation in the Western world. But MP produces predominantly light rare earths, with only a small heavy rare earth concentrate. The heavy ones — dysprosium and terbium, the elements that keep magnets strong at high temperatures — still come almost entirely from China.

Tomorrow, shareholders of USA Rare Earth vote on a deal that tries to close that gap. They are being asked to approve a $2.8 billion purchase of Serra Verde, the Brazilian company that runs the Pela Ema mine in Goiás state. Serra Verde is the only scaled producer outside Asia that mines all four magnet rare earths: neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium. One mine. All four metals. No Chinese involvement.

The price is steep. USA Rare Earth will pay $300 million in cash and issue 126.85 million new shares. That means Serra Verde's owners will hold about 34% of the combined company. For a business that booked just $5.8 million in revenue last quarter and lost $10.3 million, this is a bet on what comes next, not what exists today.

And that is what makes it different from Molycorp. USA Rare Earth has $1.53 billion in cash. It has up to $1.3 billion in federal loans and $277 million in grants lined up through the Commerce Department. It is building magnet capacity at Stillwater, Oklahoma, targeting 600 tonnes a year by the end of the fourth quarter. And with Serra Verde, it is aiming for 6,400 tonnes of rare earth oxide capacity by the end of 2027 — mine to magnet, across two countries.

Eight analysts cover the stock. Their average price target is $37.38, roughly double Friday's close of $19.26. That optimism assumes the vote passes, the deal closes, and the ramp-up hits its marks. Each of those is still an open question. But the scale of the ambition is real. The last time America tried something this big in rare earths, it failed. The difference now is that China's export controls resume on November 10. The clock is running.

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An Associated Press investigation this week found that mining companies filed 268 rare earth exploration applications in Brazil during the first half of 2026. The AP and Reporter Brasil analyzed every filing and found that at least 25% fall within buffer zones around protected land, including parts of the Amazon basin. Serra Verde's Pela Ema mine — the same asset USA Rare Earth is voting to buy tomorrow — is Brazil's only commercial rare earth producer. Chinese firms have not yet filed applications, but China Nonferrous Metal Mining acquired a Brazilian tin producer last year, positioning itself for a future move into the country's rare earth sector.

Neo Performance Materials reported second-quarter revenue of $205.7 million, up 79% from a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA hit $57 million — a 200% increase and the highest in the company's 30-year history. The rare metals segment drove 78% of that total, helped by record hafnium and gallium prices. Neo also started up a new heavy rare earth separation line at its Silmet plant in Estonia, giving Europe its own source of dysprosium and terbium feedstock. Management raised full-year EBITDA guidance to $140–$150 million, nearly double the original forecast.

Shares of Avalon Advanced Materials surged 99.66% on August 20 after the company published an updated mineral resource for its Nechalacho Basal Zone in the Northwest Territories. The new estimate shows 58.6 million tonnes of measured and indicated resources grading 1.49% total rare earth oxides, plus 130.6 million tonnes of inferred resources at 1.31%. Total contained rare earth oxide rose 42% from the 2013 feasibility study. The update is the first under S-K 1300 standards and includes heavy rare earths prized in the magnet supply chain. Avalon is preparing a new preliminary economic study using current cost data and plans to present at the UBS Global Materials Conference in September.

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Barbara Humpton, CEO, USA Rare Earth
April 20, 2026

Every time a doctor orders an MRI with contrast, there is a good chance the injection contains gadolinium. Its atoms have eight unpaired electrons — tying with curium for the most of any element — which makes it the best tool for lighting up soft tissue on a scan. Gadolinium-based contrast agents hold about 70% of the MRI contrast market, worth roughly $1.6 billion in 2026. Outside hospitals, it goes into nuclear reactor control rods. Gadolinium metal trades at $54.90 per kilogram on the Chinese spot market, down 11.1% this month. China controls most of the supply. It is a heavy rare earth — scarce, strategic, and priced far higher outside China than inside it.

The ACREI index fell to 259.1 on August 18, continuing its slide from the 300-plus peak earlier this year. NdPr oxide is down to ¥715–735 per kilogram on the domestic market. Heavy rare earth prices inside China are falling too, but Western buyers are still paying multiples of those numbers for dysprosium and terbium.

— Rare Earth Exchanges

Appia Rare Earths completed its 2026 summer drill program at Alces Lake, Saskatchewan, drilling 1,441 metres across six holes. Three of the six intersected REE-bearing monazite in pegmatite and amphibolite zones. Assays are pending. Alces Lake hosts some of the highest-grade rare earth samples ever recorded in Canada.

— Junior Mining Network

China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology normally publishes its second-half rare earth mining and smelting quotas in June or July. As of late August, the announcement still has not come. This is the single largest open variable for NdPr pricing heading into September. The longer it stays unpublished, the more uncertainty builds.

— rare-earth-mining.com

The VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF closed at $80.75 on August 21, up 8.14% for the year. Total net assets reached $2.33 billion. Albemarle and Pilbara Minerals remain the fund's two largest holdings.

— VanEck

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