ANALYSIS

Brazil's Red Clay May Be the West's Answer to China

In Jiangxi province in the early 1990s, rice farmers noticed the rivers turning red. Heavy rain washed clay from the hills above their fields into the water. That clay turned out to be full of rare earths. Not locked in hard rock. Just sitting in the dirt, held by weak bonds that could be broken with acid and water.

China built hundreds of small mining sites across its southern provinces. The process was cheap. The scale was huge. Within a decade, China went from a modest rare earth producer to the source of over 90% of the world's supply. The red clay hills of the south became the base of a grip that still holds today.

Now the same geology is showing up six thousand miles west. In Brazil.

Last week, IMC Rare Earths found a new high-grade zone at Block H of its Itarantim project in Bahia. Seven meters grading at 5,695 ppm total rare earth oxide, with 38 ppm terbium oxide and 258 ppm dysprosium oxide — the two heavy rare earths that defense and EV makers need most. A three-meter section inside it hit 7,841 ppm. The whole zone starts just two meters below the surface — barely deeper than a fence post. And Block H sits outside IMC's existing 1.1 billion tonne resource, which means the deposit just got bigger.

IMC is not alone. In the past six months, three big deals have planted Western rare earth hopes in Brazilian soil. USA Rare Earth closed its $2.8 billion deal for Serra Verde's Pela Ema mine in Goiás — the only scaled producer of all four magnetic rare earths outside Asia. Lynas bid A$968 million for Meteoric Resources and its Caldeira deposit in Minas Gerais. Three companies, three states, one bet that the West's rare earth future runs through South America.

That matters because the heavy rare earths — terbium and dysprosium — are the ones the West cannot get. S&P Global said last month that ex-China dysprosium oxide now costs 16.3 times the Chinese domestic price. Terbium is 7.5 times. Those gaps exist because there is almost no supply outside China. Brazil's ionic clays could change that — the deposits are shallow, the process is simpler than hard-rock mining, and the heavy rare earth grades at Block H are real.

The question is time. China spent thirty years building its ionic clay industry. Brazil is just getting started. But for the first time, the West has a geological answer to China's grip — and it is buried in red clay.

 
Neodymium
$110/kg
NdPr Oxide
▲ 38% YTD
 
Praseodymium
$110/kg
NdPr Oxide
▲ 38% YTD
 
Dysprosium
$214/kg
▲ 12% YTD
 
Terbium
$1,074/kg
Metal
▲ 43% YTD
Source: SMM · China domestic · Oct 10, 2026
 
La
 
Ce
 
Pr
 
Nd
 
Sm
 
Eu
 
Gd
 
Tb
 
Dy
 
Ho
 
Er
 
Yb
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ALSO THIS WEEK

TRADE

Australia Says Rare Earth Exports Will Triple by 2028

Australia's official forecaster projects rare earth exports will triple in the next two years. The latest Resources and Energy Quarterly shows critical minerals rising from A$17 billion in export value in 2025–26 to A$26.2 billion by 2027–28. Rare earths are the fastest-growing segment as production expands beyond Lynas's Mt Weld to new mines across the country. Canberra is backing the shift with over A$7 billion in production tax incentives through its Future Made in Australia program, plus a A$1.2 billion strategic reserve with price floors for key oxides. As iron ore revenues cool, critical minerals are next.

RECYCLING

Paladin Expanding Ohio Plant to 150 Tonnes a Year

Paladin EnviroTech is spending over $5 million to nearly quadruple its Ohio rare earth recovery plant — from 40 tonnes a year to 150 by Q3 2027. The company pulls neodymium, praseodymium, terbium, and dysprosium out of old hard drives, EV motors, MRI machines, and wind turbines. MRI magnets can contain up to 16% dysprosium, making them one of the richest non-mining sources of heavy rare earths in the West. Paladin works with Western Digital and uses a non-acid process from Ames National Laboratory that recovers 97–98% of the rare earths. Six US sites, two in Europe, South Korea next.

MINING

Wyoming Mine Shows $1.07 Billion NPV in Updated Study

American Rare Earths released an updated scoping study for the Cowboy State Mine within its Halleck Creek project in Wyoming. The plan calls for 4.5 million tonnes per year over 26 years, producing roughly 2,500 tonnes of NdPr oxide annually — 36% more than the 2025 base case. After-tax NPV comes in at $1.07 billion at an 8% discount rate, with initial capital of about $900 million. The company says production could feed straight into the US permanent magnet supply chain. All tonnage in the study is based on Indicated resources — no Inferred material in the mine plan.

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BlackRock launched a new fund on the New Money Grid.

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Yes, that means BlackRock, the biggest asset manager on Earth, is already on the grid.

Already moving billions.

And here's the thing most people miss:

Every dollar that moves across this new grid burns a scarce digital fuel.

As the money floods in, and it's flooding in FAST…

The demand for this fuel skyrockets.

And by design... the more it gets used... the more the supply shrinks.

You don't need to be a finance expert to know what happens when demand goes vertical and supply falls off a cliff?

Oil went 1,233% when this happened in the '70s.

Uranium went 946% in the early 2000s.

Rare earths went 2,512% when China cut supply in 2010.

It's called a commodity crunch.

And this one's bigger than all three combined.

“Mining is absolutely necessary. You're not going to get rid of the need for mining. But you can help solve that short-term problem right now by addressing end-of-life assets and some of these technologies.”
Attributed to Luke Wray, SVP Critical Materials & Defense, Paladin EnviroTech – Mining.com, October 9, 2026
Tm
Thulium
69
The Element
Thulium is the second-rarest naturally occurring lanthanide, and most people will never hear its name. But if you have had laser surgery for an enlarged prostate – a procedure called ThuLEP – the laser used thulium. It also powers portable X-ray sources for the military and fiber amplifiers that boost telecom signals over long distances. Nearly all of it comes from ionic clay mines in China's south – the same kind of deposits now turning up in Brazil. The oxide trades at roughly $180/kg in bulk, and under Beijing's 2025 export controls, thulium needs a license to leave the country. That license is currently suspended.
AROUND THE MARKET

Earth Science Week 2026 Picks Critical Minerals as Its Theme

The American Geosciences Institute chose "Critical Minerals for a Thriving Society" as the theme for October 11–17. Universities across the country are hosting talks on topics from agricultural minerals to microbe-assisted extraction. It is the first time the annual event has centered on critical minerals.

Post-Holiday Trading Resumes Slowly in China

Four days after Golden Week ended, actual rare earth orders remain thin. SMM says PrNd alloy held at pre-holiday levels through October 8 with no intraday moves. Buyers are probing for lower prices while sellers hold firm on costs.

CREIA Index Ticks to 263.6 as NdPr Rises, Terbium Softens

China's Rare Earth Industry Association posted its latest price index at 263.6 on October 9, up from 262.9 in late September. NdPr oxide rose to ¥730–750/kg. Terbium oxide drifted lower even as small-lot transactions cleared above $12,000/kg.

SIU Scientists to Present on Microbe-Assisted Rare Earth Extraction

Southern Illinois University researchers will present on using microbes to harvest rare earths at an October 14 talk during Earth Science Week. The session explores how bacteria might help recover critical minerals from unconventional sources.

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