Osaka, Japan. June 2019. Donald Trump sat across from Xi Jinping at the G20 and folded. He had promised tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods. He had vowed to crack down on Huawei. Then he took it all back. China bought some soybeans. Both sides smiled for the cameras. The press called it a truce.

That truce lasted a few months. So did the next one. And the one after that. The same dynamic keeps playing out: Trump threatens, China holds firm, and Trump walks back the threat once the cameras turn on. The question has always been why.

Now we know. A Reuters analysis published Sunday laid it out plainly: Trump has taken a less combative tone ahead of today's summit because of one thing — China's near-total control of rare earth minerals. Not trade deficits. Not soybeans. Not even chips. The 17 metals that go into every F-35 jet engine, every EV motor, and every MRI machine. China refines about 85% of them — down from over 90% a few years ago, but still dominant after six years of "fighting back."

Today Xi Jinping arrives at the White House for his first visit in a decade. It's their second meeting this year, after Trump flew to Beijing in May. The agenda is the same as Busan last October: trade, AI, and critical minerals. But this time the clock is louder. The Busan truce — the deal that paused China's rare earth export controls — expires on November 10. That is 47 days from now.

And even while the truce held, China kept squeezing. Rare earth magnet exports to the U.S. fell 21% in August to 512 tons, according to Chinese customs data reported by Bloomberg. Shipments to Japan dropped 17%. To Germany, 22%. The Diplomat reports that yttrium exports to the U.S. have declined sharply since April 2025, despite China's promise to ease controls. The truce, they wrote, "is quite fragile."

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng spent all of Sunday at JPMorgan's Manhattan headquarters trying to close the gaps. Three items on the table: the Busan truce, China's failure to deliver on rare earth commitments from the May summit, and AI rules. The most likely result, analysts say, is a short extension and small gestures — not a real fix. Both sides meet. Both sides talk. Both sides buy time. And China's share stays near 85%.

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Jet engines need thermal barrier coatings to survive extreme heat. For decades, those coatings used yttrium — a rare earth China controls. Now, with yttrium shipments to the U.S. down about 75% in the twelve months through March, suppliers are going back to formulas from the 1970s. Canada's National Research Council and European manufacturer Oerlikon Metco are testing zirconia-based coatings that don't need rare earths at all. Geoffrey Gertz, a former White House national security official, told Reuters: "We are years, not months, away from breaking our dependency on China."

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng held an all-day session at JPMorgan Chase's Manhattan headquarters on Sunday. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer joined them. Three items were on the table: the status of the Busan trade truce expiring November 10, China's failure to deliver on rare earth export promises from the May summit, and new AI rules. The U.S. proposed a safety notification system for AI. Neither side reported a deal. The real test comes today at the White House.

Chinese customs data released this week show rare earth magnet shipments to the U.S. dropped to 512 tons in August — down 21% from July and 13% below the same month last year. Shipments to Japan fell 17% year-over-year. Germany fell 22%. Total Chinese rare earth permanent magnet exports for August hit 5,010 metric tons, down 18% from a year ago, according to Shanghai Metals Market. The numbers land just days before today's summit, where rare earth supply is a top agenda item. Capital Economics noted that Beijing hasn't applied the same squeeze to Europe as it has to the U.S. — but Europe's own dependence leaves it exposed anyway.

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China imposed export controls on yttrium and six other rare earths in April 2025. Since then, Beijing has used a "drip-feed" approach to licensing. U.S. imports of yttrium oxide stopped entirely for months, with only small batches resuming. CSIS data show China shipped just 17 tons of yttrium to the U.S. between April and December 2025, compared with 333 tons in the eight months before the controls.

— The Diplomat / CSIS

Shanghai Metals Market's weekly review shows NdPr oxide and terbium oxide prices stopped falling late last week after several days of declines. Dysprosium oxide held flat. Trading volume stayed thin, with buyers waiting for summit results before placing orders.

— Shanghai Metals Market

The WEF's pre-summit analysis said both sides are "under pressure to extend the pause on major tariff escalation and rare earth export controls." The report noted that the Busan truce created a floor but no lasting structure, and that China wants assurances export controls won't be weaponized further.

— World Economic Forum

Craig Singleton, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told U.S. News that several May summit commitments remain unfulfilled — including agreements for China to ease access to rare earth minerals and commit billions in agricultural purchases. He described the overall relationship as ongoing competition masked by diplomacy.

— U.S. News & World Report