September 2010. A Chinese fishing boat hit two Japanese coast guard ships near the Senkaku Islands. Japan took the captain.

Weeks later, Chinese customs stopped clearing rare earth shipments to Japan. No press release. No formal word. Ships just sat there.

The rest of the world kept buying. Europe got its rare earths. Korea got its rare earths. America got its rare earths. Japan got nothing.

Beijing denied it all. But the message was clear: we pick who gets supply and who doesn't.

Sixteen years later, China is running the exact same play. New target. Same logic.

On Thursday, China's Commerce Ministry made it plain. He Yadong said Beijing would keep issuing rare earth export licenses for Europe. He said China would keep the export talks with the EU going. And he said none of this hung on the US-China trade truce, which runs out January 10.

This was not a leak. It was a public statement at a press event, picked up by CNBC and by Beijing's state press. The message was meant to be heard.

Then came the ask. Beijing wants the EU to help clear cases for Chinese firms that need dual-use tech licenses in Europe. Dual-use means goods that work in both civil and military settings — the kind Europe has been holding back. So the deal is this: Europe gets its rare earths, China gets easier access to EU dual-use tech, and America gets left out.

The price data shows what this split looks like. Shanghai Metals Market had PrNd metal flat inside China on Friday. Outside China, SMM priced PrNd oxide at $115 to $129 per kilogram FOB. In September, China shipped 4,270 tonnes of rare earths — up 6.7% from a year ago but down 9.8% from August.

Beijing isn't cutting supply. It's picking where it goes. European magnet makers now have a timing edge over American ones as long as this split lasts. If Brussels turns down the dual-use ask, watch the pace of new licenses. If January 10 comes with no new deal, American buyers face a gap Europe won't share.

The 2010 Japan play worked — and blew back. Japan put money into recycling and new mines. Lynas in Australia got hundreds of millions because of that cutoff. The question now is whether splitting Europe from America starts the same kind of push, or whether Europe takes the deal and stays quiet.

Elon Musk recently shared a private video of his new product with a Silicon Valley insider called Jason Calacanis…

The venture capitalist who turned $100,000 into $100 million when Uber went public.

And Jason was stunned. He said:

"I've seen [Elon's new product], he's making sick progress. He's not showing it publicly…but wow… I think it will be the best selling product of all time."

I couldn't agree more.

In fact, when you click here and see this patent-protected technology…

I believe you'll want to buy one for yourself as soon as it's available.

We have so much to look forward to

JPMorgan named Andrew Frame to run its critical minerals push. He's the first person in charge of this inside the bank. Frame sits within a ten-year, $1.5 trillion plan called Security and Resiliency, built to back firms in defense, energy, and tech. Of that, up to $10 billion goes to direct equity and venture capital bets across sectors including rare earths, nuclear, batteries, defense, pharma, AI, and quantum computing. CEO Jamie Dimon said America has let itself lean too hard on outside sources for the things its economy runs on.

Phoenix Tailings said it finished first designs for a full-size rare earth separation plant in America. The site would handle more than 18,000 tons of feed per year from mines, old magnets, and factory scrap. The firm already runs a small refining site in New Hampshire backed by a $66 million DOE grant. Separation is the step between raw ore and finished metal. That's the stage where China has the tightest grip, and the $148 million project with MIT aims to prove it can be done here.

Vietnam has drafted a rule that would ban raw rare earth ore from leaving the country. The draft, sent for legal review on October 8, covers 17 of the country's 19 key minerals. It has not taken effect yet. Only goods that pass strict refining tests can leave. Vietnam holds the world's sixth-largest rare earth reserves but sends nearly all its crude ore to China.

So here's a number that got my attention.

Venture capital investment in U.S. crypto companies hit $7.9 billion last year.

Up 44% from the year before.

These are the smartest, most ruthless investors on earth.

And they're betting nearly $8 billion on blockchain.

This isn't some meme coin or flash in the pan crypto trend.

This is infrastructure.

Payment rails, settlement systems.

The digital plumbing that moves our money faster, cheaper, and safer.

The exact same thing that President Trump plans to force $382 trillion worth of financial assets onto by April of 2027.

And there's a single digital asset sitting at the center of everyone of these transactions.

It's the one token that every institution must hold to operate on this new system

Get the full breakdown on the digital infrastructure asset behind the $382T migration.

That's why BlackRock, JPMorgan, Fidelity are already accumulating this fuel now (while it's on sale).

But I don't suggest waiting until the rest of Wallstreet catches on.

By then the big gains are out the window and you could be left fighting for scraps with everyone else.

Click Here for a full report on exactly what it is and how to buy it.

The Critical Materials Forum London ran today as part of LME Week, hosted jointly by Project Blue and the MMTA, alongside the LME Metals Seminar at the Queen Elizabeth II Centre.

— MMTA

At least 18 foreign firms are chasing rare earth deals in Brazil, with more than $3.5 billion spent or planned. Australia leads with 11 firms. America and Canada have three each.

— Rio Times / Folha de S.Paulo

A new report says public firms with rare earth ties aren't pricing trade risk into their books. It maps the January DFARS ban and the dying US-China truce as two dates to watch.

— Factored In (Substack)

The China Rare Earth Society’s 2026 annual conference is set for October 23–26 in Suzhou, with 28 research forums spanning mining, magnets, AI, superconductors, catalysts, agriculture, and textiles.

— Rare Earth Exchanges