In October 2025, China's Ministry of Commerce rolled out its toughest rare earth export controls yet. The package added five more elements to the licensing list and introduced a rule with global reach: any product made anywhere that contained even 0.1% Chinese-origin rare earth material by value would need Beijing's approval to ship. Then, as part of the trade truce with Washington, China suspended the package for twelve months, starting November 10, 2025.

Those twelve months run out in six days. And Beijing has not announced what comes next.

The trade truce itself was extended to January 10, 2027. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced it on September 24, as Xi Jinping wrapped up his Washington visit. But rare earths were left for later talks, and the extension did not settle the one clause that chipmakers, automakers, and defense contractors care about most: whether the November 10 suspension carries on.

The market already prices in the stress. Dysprosium oxide inside China costs about $210 to $216 per kilogram. Outside China, estimates put that same material at $2,500 to $5,500 per kilogram – a gap of up to 26 times, according to Rare Earth Exchanges. Terbium is worse. Chinese domestic terbium oxide sits below $1,000 per kilogram. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence put it at about $6,745 CIF Europe in September. Those are not normal spreads. Those are the numbers you see when one country controls the valve and everyone else is scrambling for drops.

The valve is open, but not wide. China's rare earth exports for January through September totaled 43,711 tonnes, down 9.6% year-on-year, according to Metal.com. Yet September magnet exports hit a 2026 record of 6,165 tonnes, up 23% from August. That is what the pause looks like in practice. It is also what is at stake on November 10.

A small Manifold market, with only 10 traders, puts 85% odds on the suspension still being in effect on November 30. That sounds reassuring until you remember that the April 2025 controls – covering dysprosium, terbium, yttrium, samarium, gadolinium, lutetium, and scandium – were never suspended at all. Even the best-case outcome on November 10 leaves that earlier regime in place. In July, the IEA estimated that full implementation of China's curbs could put $6.5 trillion of downstream production outside China at risk. Six days is not a lot of time to plan for that.

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Hunan Research Institute for Nonferrous Metals and Jinan Yuxiao Group have pulled out of Kenya's Mrima Hill tender. Five groups submitted bids on October 21: two U.S. consortia, a U.S.-affiliated group, an Australian consortium, and a Kenyan-British joint venture. Fluor Corp. is part of the Meridian consortium with Tetra Tech. Mining Minister Hassan Ali Joho told Reuters on October 30 that Kenya faces "no pressure from either China or the US." Mrima Hill sits about 65 km from Mombasa. Preliminary estimates put its rare earths and niobium at tens of billions of dollars.

MP Materials, the only company mining and refining rare earths at scale in the United States, reports third-quarter results after the close on Thursday, November 5. The call starts at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. The stock fell about 6% on October 30 as the sector sold off. Investors will watch the magnet ramp-up at the Fort Worth plant and how NdPr prices, which slipped from an October peak, are hitting margins at Mountain Pass.

The United States pledged $10 million for critical minerals recycling in India and ASEAN member states. The pledge came on the sidelines of a Quad foreign ministers meeting in Atlanta on October 31. Deccan Herald framed it as funding for e-waste recycling in India. Ministers also discussed safeguarding rare earth supply networks, with no further commitments announced. It is a small number next to the scale of the problem, but it points the Quad toward recovering metals from scrap.

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USA Rare Earth surged 13% and Critical Metals climbed 12% on October 28 in a sector-wide rally with no single catalyst. Two days later, the move reversed. Critical Metals sank 11% on dilution worries tied to new shares from its European Lithium deal, while USA Rare Earth fell 10% and MP Materials dropped 6%.

— 24/7 Wall St. · TIKR

A Manifold market asks whether China's suspension of its October 2025 rare earth export controls will still be in effect on November 30, 2026. It shows 85%, but only 10 traders are in it, so treat it as a rough mood check. The April 2025 licensing regime stays in force either way.

— Manifold Markets

The University of Utah and the Utah Mining Association host the inaugural Intermountain Critical Minerals Summit on November 4–5 at the Salt Palace Convention Center, alongside the 111th annual UMA convention. The agenda covers technology, policy, workforce development and investment. Participants include Rio Tinto Kennecott, Energy Fuels and Lockheed Martin.

— University of Utah

Fluor Corp. is part of Meridian Mineral Holdings, one of five groups bidding for Kenya's Mrima Hill rare earth and niobium deposit, near Mombasa. Mining Minister Hassan Ali Joho told Reuters that Kenya expects to pick a developer within three weeks.

— Reuters via Miningmx