ANALYSIS

The Clock Gets Two More Months

October 17, 1973. Kuwait City.

OAPEC ministers met in Kuwait City and voted to cut oil production by five percent a month. Within days, Arab producers began banning oil exports to the United States. The price of oil roughly quadrupled within months.

The pain did not start on the day of the vote. It started in the weeks after, when gas stations ran dry and the lines stretched for blocks. The architecture of control had been built over years. The vote just switched it on.

Today is November 10, 2026. And a different kind of clock just got moved.

One year ago, on November 7, 2025, China’s Ministry of Commerce suspended a sweeping set of export controls it had announced a month earlier. They covered five more rare earth elements – europium, holmium, erbium, thulium, and ytterbium – and introduced the 0.1% rule: a product made anywhere in the world that contains 0.1% or more Chinese-origin rare earth material by value needs Beijing’s approval to ship. The suspension was part of a trade truce between Washington and Beijing. It was due to expire on November 10.

On Monday, November 9, China’s Ministry of Commerce extended the pause by two months, to January 10, 2027. Reuters reported that the ministry issued a short statement and gave no other details. It did not say which measures the extension covers. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had said in September that the truce extension covers the suspension. China’s own statement at the time did not name it.

So the clock did not run out. It got two more months. The April 2025 licensing for seven medium and heavy rare earths was never suspended and stays in force. Reuters says President Trump is due in Shenzhen later this month for an APEC summit, where he is expected to meet Xi Jinping. That is the next date that matters to the automakers and chipmakers that depend on these metals.

The trade data show a slower, lumpier flow. China’s rare earth exports for January through September came in at 43,711 tonnes, down 9.6% from a year earlier. September exports were 4,269.8 tonnes, up 6.7% on the year but down 9.8% from August. Magnet exports hit 6,165 tonnes in September, up 23% on the month and the highest of 2026, according to Shanghai Metals Market. Magnets sent to the United States for January through September totaled 4,637 tonnes, about 15% below the same period of 2024, according to Silverado Policy Accelerator.

Meanwhile, the political ground in Washington shifted. Democrats won control of the House and the Senate in the November 3 midterms, according to CBS News projections. Democrats had already questioned the administration’s $1.6 billion deal with USA Rare Earth, and S&P Global reported in September that they planned broader probes of administration mining stakes after the midterms. The companies building the West’s rare earth chain now face two risks at once: a supplier that can restart the clock and a new Congress that wants to audit the pipes.

In 1973, the embargo did not last forever. It was lifted five months later. But oil never went back to three dollars a barrel. The architecture of control stayed in place, and the world rearranged itself around it. That is the lesson for rare earths. Whether Beijing extends the pause again or lets it lapse, the wiring is done.

 
Neodymium
$176.98/kg
▲ 18.54% YTD
 
Praseodymium
$182/kg
▲ 26.3% YTD
 
Dysprosium
$2,166/kg
▲ 377.2% YTD
 
Terbium
$4,594/kg
▲ 131.6% YTD
Source: Strategic Metals Invest · Western retail · Nov 2026 · USD/kg · YTD vs Jan 1
 
La
 
Ce
 
Pr
 
Nd
 
Sm
 
Eu
 
Gd
 
Tb
 
Dy
 
Ho
 
Er
 
Yb
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“I suggest that the United States plan its industrial future on the assumption that Chinese rare earth exports will be available when they serve Chinese interests, not necessarily when American manufacturers require them.”
– Jack Lifton, Co-Chair, Critical Minerals Institute · InvestorNews, November 6, 2026
69
Tm
Thulium
168.93
The Rare Earth You Never Heard Of, Until Beijing Put It on the List
Thulium is the scarcest of the rare earths found in nature in measurable amounts, at about 0.5 ppm in the Earth’s crust. One estimate puts global output near 50 tonnes a year. It goes into portable X-ray sources that use thulium-170, surgical lasers, and specialty optical fiber, and it is a security feature in euro banknotes. Thulium was one of five elements, with holmium, erbium, europium, and ytterbium, that Beijing added to its export controls on October 9, 2025. The rule was suspended before it took effect, and the suspension now runs to January 10, 2027. China produces about 97% of the world’s thulium. There is no benchmark price, but one supplier listed 99.9% metal at about $1,800/kg in 1 kg lots in March.
AROUND THE MARKET

Democrats’ Blue Wave Puts Trump Mineral Deals Under the Microscope

After sweeping both chambers of Congress in the November 3 midterms, Democratic lawmakers are promising investigations into the Trump administration’s critical minerals deals. USA Rare Earth, which received a government equity stake earlier this year, is among the companies named in a senators’ letter. The new majority could slow future funding or force renegotiation of existing agreements.

European Dysprosium and Terbium Oxide Prices Jump Again

As of November 5, spot dysprosium oxide in Europe was quoted at $3,300–$4,200/kg, up $150/kg. Spot terbium oxide rose as well. Gadolinium oxide hit $2,700–$3,000/kg, up $100/kg. Buyers are front-loading orders ahead of today’s deadline, and thin supply outside China is making every trade count.

USA Rare Earth Stock Falls 9.5% Ahead of Q3 Report

USAR closed at $7.42 on November 5, down 9.5% on the day. The drop came as the broader rare earth sector sold off and congressional scrutiny of Trump mineral deals weighed on sentiment. The company reports Q3 results after the close on November 9 — its first quarterly report under new CEO Thras Moraitis.

SMM Weekly: PrNd Chain Rebounds After Deep Slide

Shanghai Metals Market’s weekly review reported that PrNd oxide and alloy prices bounced midweek after a stretch of declines. However, many sellers pulled quotes as November 10 approached, and trading volume stayed thin. Medium and heavy rare earth prices in China were mixed, with dysprosium holding steady and gadolinium slipping.

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