June 24, 1948. West Berlin.

Soviet forces halted all surface traffic into the western half of the city. About 2.1 million people woke up cut off by land. The Western allies had two choices: give up the city or feed it from the sky. They chose the sky.

American and British planes flew round the clock. At the peak, one landed every 63 seconds. In all, the airlift delivered more than 2.3 million tons of supplies. The Soviets lifted the blockade on May 11, 1949, and the flights ran on into the autumn.

Last Thursday, November 5, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz spoke at an economic conference in Berlin and proposed that Europe “build up stockpiles in Brussels, at the European level.” He gave the reason in one line: “Without critical raw materials, there would be no batteries, no high-performance electric motors, no modern semiconductors.”

The timing is everything. Tomorrow, November 10, China’s pause on its October 2025 rare earth export rules expires. The pause came out of the November 2025 trade truce between Beijing and Washington. If it lapses, five more elements, an extraterritorial rule, and limits on mining, refining, and magnet technology come back. China’s April 2025 licensing for seven medium and heavy rare earths never stopped, so buyers of those already ask Beijing for approval, shipment by shipment. As of November 5, China had not published an extension. Washington and Beijing have both named January 10, 2027 for the broader truce, but that date is not in any legal text.

Prices outside China moved up this week. Shanghai Metals Market put dysprosium oxide in Rotterdam bonded storage at $3,300–$4,200 per kilogram, up $150, and gadolinium oxide at $2,700–$3,000, up $100. Inside China, Pr-Nd oxide fell to a weekly low of 697,000–700,000 yuan per tonne, then rebounded to 710,000–714,000. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence found that dysprosium oxide delivered to Europe traded at 16.3 times the Chinese domestic price in late September, up from 6.8 times at the end of June.

Merz is not the first to ask for a stockpile. EU industry chief Stéphane Séjourné floated a central buying authority in November 2025, and in May the EU shortlisted tungsten and rare earths for a first joint stockpile. The European Commission also selected 46 strategic raw material projects last month. Those projects are the supply side. A stockpile is different: it means buying metals now, at today’s prices, and storing them so there is something to draw on when shipments stop.

Seventy-eight years after the airlift, a German chancellor is asking Europe to fill the warehouse before the next shipment is in doubt. China refines roughly 90% of the world’s rare earths, and the pause ends with one day left on the clock.

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Dysprosium oxide in Europe surged last week to a range of $2,500–$3,500. Gadolinium oxide rose $100 to $2,700–$3,000. Traders are pricing in the risk that China’s export control pause expires tomorrow with no confirmed extension.

— Shanghai Metals Market

Domestic Pr-Nd oxide dropped to 714,000–716,000 yuan per ton by Friday. Downstream magnet and motor plants are sitting on their hands, waiting to see what happens after the deadline passes.

— Shanghai Metals Market

The European Commission selected 46 projects across the bloc for faster permitting and priority access to public and private funding. The list spans mining, refining, and recycling under the Critical Raw Materials Act — part of Europe’s push to cut its dependence on China before the next supply shock.

— European Commission

A Rare Earth Exchanges review found that major U.S. defense companies do not break out magnet-related rare earth costs in their annual filings. With the January 2027 DFARS ban on Chinese-origin magnets approaching, that gap leaves investors guessing at the true exposure across the sector.

— Rare Earth Exchanges