SUPPLY CHAIN
Friedland Bets US$322 Million That Scandium Can Break China's Grip
Scandium is the rare earth that makes aluminum better. Add a small amount and the alloy gets stronger, more heat-resistant, and easier to weld. The Soviet Union used scandium-aluminum alloys in MiG fighters.
The problem is supply. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates the world produced about 80 tonnes of scandium oxide in 2025 and used about 60. China is the leading producer.
Since April 2025, China has required export licenses for scandium, along with dysprosium, terbium, yttrium, samarium, gadolinium, and lutetium. That licensing regime was never suspended.
On Monday, Sunrise Energy Metals approved the Syerston Scandium Project in New South Wales, Australia. Sunrise is chaired by Robert Friedland, the founder of Ivanhoe Mines. The price tag is US$322 million, with up to US$400 million in long-term debt committed by the U.S. Office of Strategic Capital, part of the Pentagon. That debt commitment is conditional, and the investment decision does not remove the conditions.
First production is targeted for the second half of 2028. The plant is designed to process 64,000 tonnes of ore per year and produce 60 tonnes of scandium oxide at better than 99.9% purity. The mine is forecast to run for 32 years: 21 years of mining, then 11 years of processing from stockpiles.
The project took more than two decades to get here. Interest in nickel delayed it. Weak scandium demand delayed it.
The question now is whether 60 tonnes a year is enough. Sunrise CEO Sam Riggall has said annual demand could reach 300 tonnes by 2030, driven by fuel cells. Today, the USGS counts about 60 tonnes of consumption. Sunrise is betting that if supply exists, buyers will follow.
Five days from now, China's suspension of its October 2025 export controls expires. Scandium is not part of that package. It sits in the April 2025 list, which stays in force either way. Syerston is a bet on supply outside China, not on November 10.
|
| Source: Strategic Metals Invest · Ex-China retail · USD/kg |
|
SPONSORED
Man Gets into Cybercab…You Won’t Believe What Happens Next
This man you see below just got inside a Cybercab…
Elon Musk's new car that has no steering wheel…
No gas or break pedals…
And no rearview mirrors.
You won't believe what happened next.
And get the details on why Elon is predicting his next move could help unleash $320 trillion in new wealth…
And how you could claim your piece of that pie.
|
Also This Week
|
||||
SPONSORED
Elon Musk’s One Stock Retirement Plan
Sometimes you come across an opportunity so explosive…
That it has the potential to turn a small stake…
Into a six figure and in some rare cases even a seven-figure nest egg…
Like it happened when I picked Nvidia in 2016.
It jumped high enough to turn $5,000 into an entire retirement nest egg of $1,895,000.
And while I can’t guarantee you’ll become a millionaire...
I think this little-known AI stock is one of those opportunities…
Which is why I call it “Elon Musk’s One Stock Retirement Plan.”
Now, if this idea of retiring with a single stock sounds crazy to you…
You should know that some of the best investors in the world believe that the idea of diversification is a little overrated.
Stanley Druckenmiller said…
“You don’t get rich by diversifying into 50 mediocre assets. You get rich by finding two or three asymmetric home runs.”
Or listen to legendary investor Peter Lynch. He said…
“I would own one stock if I can find one great stock.”
Even Warren Buffett said…
“Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing.”
|
|
AROUND THE MARKET
CREIA Holds Rare Earth Metals Conference in Baotou
China's Rare Earth Industry Association is holding its 2026 Rare Earth Metals and Alloys Annual Conference in Baotou, Inner Mongolia, November 4–6. The agenda focuses on expanding metal and alloy uses in industrial materials beyond NdFeB magnets. In September, China Northern Rare Earth, also based in Baotou, put all eight melting furnaces at its new NdFeB alloy line into trial production. The 50,000-tonne-per-year expansion is expected to lift its magnet alloy capacity to 150,000 tonnes a year, with full operation targeted by the end of 2026.
SMM Weekly: Ex-China Light Rare Earth Prices Slip Again
Shanghai Metals Market's weekly wrap-up, published November 2, showed ex-China PrNd oxide FOB at $115–121/kg, down $3/kg. Neodymium oxide FOB fell $3 to $138–140/kg. Terbium oxide FOB eased $6 to $1,150–1,238/kg. Trading volumes were thin, and downstream buyers stayed on the sidelines.
India Targets 6,000 Tonnes of Rare Earth Magnets by 2030
India's ₹7,280-crore rare earth permanent magnet scheme, approved in November 2025, targets about 6,000 tonnes of annual sintered magnet capacity by 2030 across five units. In a guest opinion for The Week on November 2, Rare Earth Association of India president Deependra Singh said India imports more than 90% of its rare earth magnets from one country. He put projected domestic demand above 8,000 tonnes, leaving a gap of about 2,000 tonnes, and called for scaling up recycling. A ₹1,500-crore recycling incentive scheme already targets critical minerals recovery from secondary sources.
— The Week
Mining & Critical Minerals America Opens in Houston
The two-day Mining & Critical Minerals America conference runs November 4–5 at the Hilton Houston Post Oak by the Galleria. The event arrives as the sector faces twin deadlines: China's export control suspension expiring November 10 and the DFARS magnet ban taking effect on January 1, 2027. The 4th MSIT Seminar on Rare-Earth Materials and Magnet Technology follows on November 16–17 in Stuttgart.
