PRICING

China's Pricing Machine Just Crossed Into Europe

For most of the last hundred years, the world's metal prices were set in one place. London. The London Metal Exchange opened in 1877 above a hat shop on Lombard Court. Tin, copper, lead – if you wanted a price, you went to London.

The city's traders didn't mine anything. They didn't smelt anything. They just set the number everyone else used. That system worked because London sat at the center of global trade. Metals flowed through its ports, its vaults, its banks.

Rare earths never got that treatment. For decades, the only prices that mattered were set inside China – in Baotou, in Ganzhou, on the Shanghai Metals Market. China refines roughly 90% of the world's rare earths. So China sets the price. And outside China, there has been no widely used way to check the number.

That is starting to change. Tomorrow, November 4, SMM begins publishing four new European rare earth price assessments. Erbium oxide CIF Rotterdam. Dysprosium, terbium, and gadolinium oxide for Rotterdam bonded storage. The assessments will update every Wednesday at 12:00 London time.

And SMM isn't alone. On October 30, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence said it is adding 19 new grades to its rare earth price assessment. Twelve are CIF North America quotes, including erbium, holmium, thulium, ytterbium, gadolinium and lutetium. Seven are DDP China. Two agencies, one week, and the Western pricing map just got bigger.

Why does this matter? Because there are two rare earth markets now. They need two sets of prices. Dysprosium costs about $212 per kilo inside China. Outside China, estimates put the same oxide at $2,500 to $5,500 per kilo.

That's a gap of roughly twelve to twenty-six times. Terbium shows the same split: about $955 per kilo in China, an estimated $10,000 to $13,000 outside it. You can't run a supply chain on one Chinese price when the stuff costs ten times more once it crosses a border. So the pricing shops are catching up to the real world.

The timing lines up with something else. On October 15, a MOFCOM spokesman said China would keep facilitating approval of rare earth export licenses for the EU, and asked the EU to reciprocate on dual-use cases.

For Europe, that means managed access. And a managed market needs its own price.

And for the first time, they're getting them. The hat shop on Lombard Court never had to deal with anything like this.

 
Neodymium (NdPr Oxide)
$107/kg
▲ +45% YTD
SMM China domestic · Oct 30
 
Dysprosium Oxide
$212/kg
▼ −4% YTD
CREIA China domestic · Oct 26
 
Terbium Oxide
$955/kg
▼ −5% YTD
CREIA China domestic · Oct 26
 
Erbium Oxide
$87/kg
▲ +80% YTD
SMM China domestic · Sep 3
Source: SMM & CREIA · China domestic · USD/kg
 
La
 
Ce
 
Pr
 
Nd
 
Pm
 
Sm
 
Eu
 
Gd
 
Tb
 
Dy
 
Ho
 
Er
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Sometimes the world changes, and no one notices.

On the morning after Henry Kissinger's petrodollar deal with the Saudis in 1974, the bills in your wallet looked exactly as they had the night before.

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TRADE

Beijing Tells Europe: Your Licenses Are Safe

On October 15, MOFCOM spokesman He Yadong said China is willing to keep facilitating approval of rare earth export licenses for the EU. He asked the EU to reciprocate by helping resolve key dual-use license cases involving China.

The framing matters. Beijing ties rare earth access to reciprocity. Europe gets facilitation. In return, Beijing wants help on its own license cases.

POLICY

DOE Launches National Battery Strategy

The DOE's Office of Critical Minerals and Energy Innovation published a national battery strategy on October 28. It links four national labs with private firms to speed up battery technology, with targets running from 2030 to 2035. DOE also announced 17 projects worth $29.5 million.

Every EV motor needs magnets. Magnets need rare earths. The money is real, but the gap between lab work and a working mine is still years wide.

EXPLORATION

IMC Finds High-Grade Yttrium in Brazil – While Japan's Imports Fall

IMC Rare Earths reported two yttrium-rich drilling hits at its Itarantim ionic clay project in Bahia, Brazil, on October 29. Block H returned 7 meters at 2,052 ppm yttrium oxide, including a 3-meter zone at 2,836 ppm. Block D hit 13 meters at 1,287 ppm, including 3 meters at 2,464 ppm. IMC estimates yttrium leach extraction at about 84% over a 9-meter section of that Block D hole. Yttrium makes up 36% of the rare earth content in the Block H intercept.

The timing is hard to ignore. Rare Earth Exchanges reported in August that Japan's yttrium oxide imports fell 74% year on year. Ionic clay deposits like Itarantim are the same type China mines for its heavy rare earths. New sources outside China matter more now than ever.

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“There is neither time nor capital to build a parallel market-based critical minerals supply chain without state support.”
– Sharon Hudson-Dean, Senior Fellow, CEPA · “Ending China’s 60-Year Grip on Critical Minerals,” October 29, 2026
Er
68
Erbium
Element 68 – The Pink One in the Fiber Optic Cable
Erbium is the reason long-distance internet works. Doped into glass fiber, it amplifies light so data can travel thousands of miles without fading. Most long-distance undersea cables use erbium-doped fiber amplifiers. It also shows up in lasers for dental and skin surgery, and in pink-tinted specialty glass. The oxide is a soft pink powder, one of the few rare earths you can tell apart by color alone. China refines roughly 90% of the world’s rare earths. Erbium oxide traded at 710,000–730,000 yuan per tonne on SMM’s October 29 weekly review, after a correction lower. Starting November 4, SMM will publish a CIF Rotterdam erbium oxide price for the first time, and Benchmark has added CIF North America and DDP China erbium grades.
AROUND THE MARKET

PrNd Oxide Slides to October Low as Dysprosium Strengthens

SMM's October 29 weekly review put PrNd oxide at 714,000–716,000 yuan per tonne, after a month-high of 744,000. Metal plants bought only as needed, and inquiries were slow to turn into orders. Dysprosium moved the other way: SMM called it the only product to strengthen continuously this week, with the oxide at 1.42–1.44 million yuan per tonne.

REMAT 2026 Opens Today in Palermo

The 7th International Conference on Rare Earth Materials runs November 3–6 in Palermo, Sicily. It covers how rare earth materials are made, reused and put to work.

Bitterroot Rare Earth Exploration Draws Scrutiny in Montana

US Critical Materials' revised Sheep Creek plan calls for sampling or drilling at four sites in the Bitterroot National Forest, at the headwaters of the West Fork of the Bitterroot River. The Forest Service is reviewing it under a categorical exclusion. Local residents and county officials keep pushing back, and the fight shows how hard it is to mine at home.

CEPA: China Built Its Rare Earth Lead Over Six Decades

A CEPA commentary by Sharon Hudson-Dean says China's grip on critical minerals reflects six decades of state planning. It says more than 11 Chinese universities and 40 laboratories train hundreds of specialized rare earth engineers each year, while the United States trains none. Her answer: shared US–EU rules, coordinated price floors and state support.

— CEPA

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