For a hundred years, Australia has let the world dig up its rocks. Iron ore, coal, gold — foreign firms built the mines, hired the workers, and shipped the stuff out. The deal was simple. You bring the cash. We all get rich.

That deal held for decades. No one in Canberra ever talked about seizing a mine. That was what other countries did. Not Perth.

Last Wednesday, at the National Press Club, Resources Minister Madeleine King said the word. She told the room that taking over Northern Minerals — a Perth-based rare earth firm — is now on the table. Her words: this is "a very serious matter."

The fight goes back to May. Treasurer Jim Chalmers told six China-linked shareholders to sell their combined stake — about 17% of the company. He gave them two weeks. Five months later, most of those shares have not been sold. The fines have not been paid.

That matters because of what sits under Northern Minerals. Its Browns Range project in Western Australia holds the Wolverine deposit. It is the country's best source of dysprosium and terbium — two metals that go into magnets for jets, missiles, EVs, and wind turbines. China refines more than nine out of ten kilos of both. Browns Range is one of the few spots on Earth that could break that grip.

So when China-linked buyers refuse to let go of a company that sits on what China controls, Canberra has a problem. King said the case has shown cracks in how Australia enforces its foreign investment rules. The review board can block a deal. But if buyers ignore the block, the tools to force them out are thin.

A state takeover would fix that. It would also put the world on notice: rare earths play by new rules now.

Both the US and Australia see this mine as key. Outside China, dysprosium sells for three to seventeen times its Chinese price. That gap is there because almost no one else makes it. Browns Range could help close it — but only if it gets built. And the build has stalled while the fight over who owns it drags on.

King wants to fix the review board so this does not happen again. But for Northern Minerals, the clock is ticking. Chalmers has filed the first court case ever brought by an Australian treasurer for a foreign investment breach.

The ore is in the ground. The permits are done. The only thing in the way is who owns the shares. And Canberra is done waiting.

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Arafura Rare Earths grew its deal with Traxys North America by 70%. The new terms lock in 850 tonnes per year of NdPr oxide from the Nolans project in Australia. The deal runs five years and is tied to the US Project Vault program, which builds mineral reserves for American makers. Arafura broke ground on the A$1.6 billion Nolans mine this month. Gina Rinehart's Hancock Prospecting backs the project, while Hyundai, Kia, and Siemens Gamesa hold offtake agreements. More Nolans output is now headed to the US — a clear sign that Washington will pay up for supply it can trust.

A report from GEM Mining Consulting says the big risk to mineral supply is not how much ore miners can pull from the ground. It is whether the world can refine it fast enough. By 2035, lithium supply will meet just 68% of demand. Copper hits 75%. For rare earths and graphite, the problem is worse — China handles about 90% of both. GEM built two new scores: one for raw ore gaps and one for refining risk. Rare earths ranked high on both.

More than twelve US firms are looking at rare earth mining and refining in Malaysia, Bloomberg reports, citing the US Embassy. Malaysia hosts the Lynas plant at Gebeng — the largest rare earth refinery outside China. New deals would add mining and refining in a country with known ore and a trained workforce. The goal is to spread supply across enough allied nations that no single chokepoint can shut it down.

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NMDC and other Indian state firms met with Russian companies on rare earth and mineral deals. The talks include access to Russia's Tomtor deposit in Siberia — one of the world's largest untapped rare earth sites. State-backed IREL is in talks to obtain ore samples from the site for testing.

— IndianMasterminds

The LME Metals Seminar kicked off today at the QEII Centre. It opens a full week of metals events. Trade policy and mineral supply chains lead this year's talks.

— London Metal Exchange

Shanghai Metals Market said Chinese rare earth prices were flat as of October 15. Holmium edged up. Terbium stopped its slide. Buying from end users stayed slow, with few big orders going through.

— Shanghai Metals Market

Australia's Treasurer Jim Chalmers has filed the first Federal Court case ever brought by a sitting treasurer for a breach of foreign investment law. The case ties to the Northern Minerals fight.

— The Oregon Group