In 1953 Brazil's president Getúlio Vargas signed the law that created Petrobras. It gave the government sole control over the country's oil. Foreign companies had pumped crude for decades. Vargas said that was over.

Oil belongs to Brazil. The slogan was simple: "O petróleo é nosso." The oil is ours.

Last Sunday, nearly 159 million Brazilians were eligible to cast ballots. Nobody won outright. President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro are headed to a runoff on October 25. For the first time in a Brazilian election, rare earths are at the center of the fight.

That's because Brazil sits on the world's second-largest rare earth reserves. Right now China mines 60% of the world's supply and refines 91% of it. The entire Western rare earth strategy depends on finding ore outside China and refining it outside China. Brazil could be the answer. But only if it builds refining at home instead of shipping raw ore overseas.

In September the Senate passed a bill to regulate critical minerals. The law offers tax breaks for companies that process ore inside the country. Lula hasn't signed it yet.

Bolsonaro wants to go further. Faster permits. Fewer restrictions. A direct line to Washington. During a campaign rally he called Brazil "the United States' solution to break its dependence on China."

Foreign money is already pouring in. USA Rare Earth bought the Serra Verde mine for $2.8 billion earlier this year. Lynas agreed to pay A$968 million for Meteoric Resources and its Caldeira clay deposit just last week. Two deals worth nearly $3.5 billion, both in Brazil, both in 2026.

That kind of money doesn't flow unless both companies think Brazil will deliver. The question the runoff will answer is who controls the terms.

Lula's camp wants domestic refining. Mine it here. Process it here. Keep the jobs.

Bolsonaro's camp says speed matters more than control right now. But both sides agree on one thing. Brazil will not be another country where someone else digs up the rocks and ships them to China.

The runoff is eighteen days away. Polls show a dead heat. Both candidates carry rejection rates above 44%. A third candidate — self-help author Pablo Marçal — polled in single digits before his candidacy was rejected.

Whoever wins will sign that minerals bill and set the rules for the Western world's biggest new source of rare earths. Seventy-three years after Vargas said the oil belongs to Brazil, someone is about to say it about neodymium.

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Senator Steve Daines spoke at the Nixon Foundation's Grand Strategy Summit on October 1 and called on the U.S. and China to stay engaged on rare earths. Daines has made eight trips to China. He is one of Trump's closest allies on Asia.

He told the South China Morning Post that both sides need to "not retreat" over their differences. Daines played a backchannel role before last week's Xi-Trump summit. The Busan truce pushed China's export control snapback to January 10, but the fight over who refines the world's rare earths hasn't changed. Daines wants deals, not deadlock.

Robert W. Baird dropped its price target on MP Materials from $80 to $65 on October 1. Baird kept the stock rated outperform. MP runs Mountain Pass in California, the only operating rare earth mine in the country. Revenue runs about $365 million a year.

The cut landed the same week rare earth stocks rallied. MP rose 4% and USA Rare Earth held flat on September's last trading day. Baird still likes the stock. But the lower target says the rally got ahead of the numbers.

Cyclic Materials opened a 25,000-tonne-per-year recycling plant in Mesa, Arizona — Cyclic Materials' first commercial-scale rare earth magnet recycling facility. The plant takes apart old hard drives, electronics, and medical equipment to recover neodymium, praseodymium, and other rare earth metals. The company built the facility in 17 months. At full capacity, Mesa will process enough scrap to supply a meaningful slice of domestic magnet feedstock without mining a single new rock. It won't replace mines, but it adds a second source at a time when every kilogram counts.

For months, I've been telling my readers that China's economy is cornered.

Now that story has been officially exposed:

China peaked in 2021, and AI can't save them.

"Official" 5% annual growth rate numbers coming out of Beijing are now considered false...

Independent economists have estimated their real growth is actually zero...

And that China is now a country in decline.

Their population is crashing... debt ballooning...

Foreign investment fleeing.

Their last hope? AI exports.

But Trump's "shadow committee" is cutting that thread as we speak.

If you thought the Iran War was about anything other than permanently crippling China...

Think again.

Here's what the Iran War is really about. >>

And when a superpower falls, the money doesn't disappear.

It moves.

Last time, it moved through Exxon - handing investors 7,000%.

This time, it moves through a company you haven't heard of - yet.

Get the name before today's market close. >>

Geomega Resources said its rare earth magnet recycling demo plant in Saint-Hubert, Quebec, is approaching construction completion. The company expects to begin commissioning in November and will use the plant to collect operational data for a future commercial-scale facility.

— Geomega Corporate Update, September 2026

Rainbow Rare Earths announced a board change, with a director stepping down from the company. Rainbow holds the Phalaborwa rare earth project in South Africa. The company recently signed an offtake MOU with Neo Performance Materials for NdPr and heavy rare earth supply.

— Mining Weekly

China's commodity exchanges were closed for the full National Day Golden Week holiday from October 1 through 7. When the Shanghai and Baotou markets reopen on October 8, traders will set the first new rare earth prices since September 30. The gap between Chinese domestic prices and ex-China prices has only widened during the silence.

— Shanghai Metals Market

U.S.-Mexico goods trade hit $871.6 billion in 2025, more than double the China figure. But REEx analysis warns that moving final assembly to Mexico does nothing to fix upstream rare earth dependence. The oxides, metals, and magnets still flow through China before they reach any Mexican factory floor.

— Rare Earth Exchanges