In 2021, Brazil wrote rare earths into law as a strategic mineral. Then nothing happened. The country sat on 21 million tonnes of reserves — the second-largest in the world. Nobody dug them up.

China took the other path. They mined. They refined. They built magnet factories. Thirty years later, they refine about 90% of the world's rare earths and make 94% of the sintered magnets that end up in EVs, jets, and robots.

One mine in Goiás state broke the pattern. Serra Verde's Pela Ema started pulling rare earths from clay in 2024. No tunnels. No dynamite. Just acid and soil.

It's the only ionic clay rare earth mine outside Asia in commercial production. And it makes all four magnet rare earths — neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium. No other mine outside Asia does that at scale.

Today, USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ: USAR) shareholders vote on whether to buy it. The price: $2.8 billion.

The money is already in place. This week, USAR finished raising $1.55 billion for a vehicle that will buy all of Serra Verde's Phase 1 output. The U.S. Department of War put in $750 million — a quarter-billion more than the original plan.

A major bank added a $500 million credit line. And the government signed a forward purchase deal worth at least $300 million over five years.

Read that again. The government is not just funding the mine. It is agreeing to buy what the mine produces. A 15-year offtake locks 100% of Phase 1 production from Pela Ema into American and allied hands. That kind of commitment did not exist two years ago.

If the vote passes, USAR will run a mine in Brazil, hold a refining stake in France through Carester, and make magnets in Stillwater, Oklahoma. End to end, across two continents, with no Chinese links in the chain.

The clock explains the rush. China's paused export controls snap back on November 10 — 74 days from today. When they resume, every kilo leaving China will need a license. Buyers without backup plans will pay whatever Beijing asks.

USAR shares fell 5% this week despite the funding news. Some investors think the $2.8 billion price is too high for a mine that only recently began commercial production. Others look at the 268 rare earth exploration filings Brazil logged in the first half of this year and see a gold rush that could bring new rivals.

Brazil's mines minister said this week he is "absolutely certain" Vale will enter rare earths. If the country's biggest miner moves in, Serra Verde's position as the only game in town would change fast.

But the U.S. government has already placed its bet. Ten billion dollars has gone into critical minerals since January 2025. The Serra Verde deal is the single biggest piece. The countdown is on.

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Between January 2025 and June 2026, the U.S. government put $10 billion into critical minerals. That number comes from the Council on Foreign Relations deal tracker. It covers EXIM letters, DOE grants, Department of War loans, and DFC commitments. Eighteen months ago, most of this money did not exist. The pace tells you how fast the policy shifted.

While the West races to build its first magnet plants, China's biggest maker is pulling away. JL MAG Rare-Earth posted first-half revenue of about RMB 4.65 billion, up 32.6%. Profit jumped 51.6%. The number to watch: robotics revenue, up 96%, as JL MAG pushes beyond magnets into motors and robot parts.

Ningbo Yunsheng posted a 154% profit jump on 42% higher revenue and shipped 7,190 tonnes of finished magnets in six months. The gap is not shrinking.

November 10 is when China's export controls snap back. But there's a second clock. Starting January 1, 2027, defense contractors are banned from buying rare earths, magnets, tungsten, and tantalum from China, Russia, Iran, or North Korea.

The rule comes from the 2024 defense spending law. That deadline is 126 days away. Contractors who have not locked in non-Chinese suppliers by then cannot bid on Pentagon work. Two deadlines, one supply chain, and not much time.

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Niron secured $300 million for its iron nitride magnet plant in Sartell, Minnesota. Half comes from the Department of War. The other half comes from the Shakopee Mdewakanton Sioux Community. Production target: 1,500 tonnes per year by 2027.

— Niron Magnetics

Brazil's mining giant is studying rare earth and lithium exploration. The country's mines minister said he is "absolutely certain" Vale will move into rare earths. The company is seeking permits in Espírito Santo state for monazite-bearing minerals.

— Rio Times

Energy Fuels' deal for German magnet maker Vacuumschmelze would bring 2,000 tonnes per year of NdFeB capacity in South Carolina, scalable to 12,000. Combined with its Australian Strategic Materials deal, that's feedstock to finished magnets outside China.

— BNN Bloomberg

MP Materials has delivered qualification magnets to General Motors from its Fort Worth plant and targets initial commercial magnet shipments in Q4 2026. Its magnetics unit brought in $16.5 million of revenue and $7.5 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q2.

— REEx