September 22, 1985. Five finance ministers walked into the Plaza Hotel in New York. They had one job: fix the dollar. It was too strong, American factories were shutting down, and the trade gap with Japan grew wider every month.

They cut a deal in one weekend. The Plaza Accord sent the dollar down 40% against the yen in two years. One meeting, one hotel — one result that reshaped global trade for a generation.

Forty-one years later, trade negotiators came back to Manhattan. On Sunday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng sat down at JP Morgan Chase headquarters with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. The talks ran all day. Reuters reported three items on the agenda: artificial intelligence, tariffs, and critical minerals.

Rare earths sat alongside AI and trade as one of three pillars. That would not have happened two years ago. In 2024, most people in Washington could not name a single rare earth element. Now the Treasury Secretary is spending his Sunday in Midtown talking about neodymium, dysprosium, and who controls them.

The reason is the Busan truce. Signed in October 2025, it froze both sides' weapons — Washington paused its Affiliates Rule, Beijing paused its October 9 export controls on rare earths and magnets. That deal expires November 10 — forty-eight days from now.

And the freeze has not worked the way Washington hoped. A senior U.S. official told Reuters that China's supply has "fallen short of expectations." Chinese firms have sat on valid export licenses and refused to ship. The pause exists on paper. On the ground, the gap is real.

Xi Jinping arrives in Washington today for a three-day state visit. Tomorrow he meets Trump at the White House. Analysts say a full deal is unlikely. The most likely result is a one-year extension of the Busan truce. Both sides can call that a win.

But an extension is not a fix. China still refines about 90% of the world's rare earths. The West has poured billions into new mines and deals over the past year — magnet plants in South Carolina, refining hubs in France, recycling lines in Arizona. Most of those projects will not ship product until 2027 or later. Diplomats buy time — only factories close gaps.

The Plaza Accord worked because the ministers walked out with a deal that moved markets on Monday morning. Tomorrow we find out if the White House does the same for rare earths — or if both sides just push the clock back twelve months.

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Critical Metals (CRML) said it dissolved more than 99% of eudialyte concentrate from its Tanbreez project in Greenland. Eudialyte holds a rich mix of heavy and light rare earths, but getting them out cleanly has been the hard part. CRML says the process now yields 19 ultra-high-purity rare earth products from its eudialyte concentrate. The company is studying a refinery in Romania to do this at full scale. If built, the plant could bring in $1.8 to $2.2 billion a year. Tanbreez is one of the largest known heavy rare earth deposits outside China. CRML stock jumped 5% on the news.

USA Rare Earth (USAR) partnered with Pasqal (PSQL) and Riven Systems to use AI and quantum computing on one of the hardest problems in the business: separation. Turning raw ore into individual elements takes hundreds of chemical steps. Each element is nearly identical to the next, and the whole process depends on getting tiny chemical differences right. Riven will run automated lab experiments. Pasqal will use quantum machine learning to find better methods. This is the first time a rare earth miner has brought quantum computing into the refining process.

The AusIMM Critical Minerals Conference 2026 wraps today in Brisbane, Australia. The three-day event drew speakers from 11 countries and featured 58 presentations on everything from mining automation to mineral policy to building supply chains outside China. Five keynotes and three panels covered the sector's biggest open questions. The timing is hard to ignore — the conference closes on the same day Xi Jinping lands in Washington, and one day before the summit that could reshape the trade rules those new supply chains depend on.

You’ve no doubt heard the chilling prediction of Europe’s Ida Auken.

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Rare earth prices held in a tight range all week. SMM called the market "in the doldrums" with limited trading as buyers waited for the Trump-Xi outcome. NdPr oxide and terbium stopped falling but did not bounce. Dysprosium stayed flat.

— Shanghai Metals Market

MP Materials signed a long-term gadolinium oxide supply deal with a major aerospace and defense company. The deal came out of the Q2 earnings call, where NdPr production rose 41% year over year and revenue plus PPA income hit $126.1 million.

— Benzinga

A Brownstein client alert projects the most likely result from tomorrow's meeting is a one-year extension of the Busan truce. The note says Xi's visit will focus on stability, not a new framework.

— Brownstein

USA Rare Earth stock is down about 2.5% this week and on pace for a fifth straight weekly decline, even after announcing the Pasqal partnership. The stock is still up roughly 28% for 2026, but the sector remains choppy ahead of the summit.

— StockTwits / Yahoo Finance