For most of the last century, Australia did one thing with its minerals: dig them up and send them somewhere else. Iron ore went to Japan, then China. Coal went everywhere. The money was good. Nobody asked what happened to the rocks after they left the port.

Rare earths exposed the weakness in that model. Australia has sizeable rare earth deposits, but most of the material is still refined overseas. It ships out as concentrate and crosses an ocean. China turns it into magnets. Those magnets go into fighter jets, EVs, and wind turbines. Australia gets paid for the rock. China captures more of the value.

On Tuesday, Resources Minister Madeleine King said Canberra is refreshing its national critical minerals strategy. “It places greater emphasis on processing and refining critical minerals,” she said. The 2023 original, King noted, predates tougher market conditions and more intense competition for investment. The refresh focuses on areas where Australia has, or can develop, a comparative advantage.

The EU noticed. The same day, Ambassador Lawrence Meredith told Reuters the bloc would be “massively investing in critical minerals” and that Australia is one of the most likely partners. A free trade deal struck in March will remove a 5.5% EU tariff on critical minerals once it is signed and ratified, expected early next year. Talks on a memorandum of understanding with the European Investment Bank are “very close.” EU policy proposals set aside up to €10 billion for critical raw materials, inside a €409 billion competitiveness fund that is still part of the 2028–2034 budget debate. The EU's initial focus matches Australia's planned A$1.2 billion strategic reserve: gallium, antimony, and rare earths.

So the money is lining up. Austrade's newest investment prospectus is its largest to date. It lists 94 projects, including 36 in midstream processing and refining. A 10% refundable tax offset on eligible processing and refining costs starts July 1, 2027. That is a real subsidy with a real date.

The question now is speed. Most of this money has not been spent yet, and most of these plants have not been built. The strategy is right. The clock is the problem.

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Energy Fuels and its Australian partner Astron got conditional credit approval for up to A$180 million (US$126 million) from two government lenders to build Phase 1 of the Donald rare earth and mineral sands project in Victoria. Export Finance Australia would provide up to A$70 million and the National Reconstruction Fund Corporation up to A$110 million. The project is permitted and has an expected 40-year mine life. Phase 1 would produce an average of 9,000 tonnes of rare earth concentrate a year, plus 225,000 tonnes of heavy mineral concentrate. A final investment decision is targeted by the end of 2026. The catch: these are conditional approvals, not cash in the ground. The A$180 million is part of a proposed A$200 million senior debt facility, and commercial lenders are still expected to provide the remaining A$20 million.

Mkango's HyProMag USA subsidiary completed a pre-feasibility study for three new magnet plants in South Carolina, Nevada, and a second Texas site, plus a central Texas hub for alloy processing, magnet finishing, and coating. Together with the Northlake, Texas facility already in engineering, the platform would produce about 6,000 tonnes a year by 2034, including 4,192 tonnes of finished magnets. The four-plant platform has a combined post-tax NPV of US$2.6 to $2.8 billion. The three new plants alone show an incremental NPV of US$1.85 to $2.06 billion and an IRR of 31% to 36%, with the higher case assuming recycled feedstock only. Capital costs run US$623 to $656 million. The plants use hydrogen processing to recover rare earth materials from scrap magnets. Northlake is targeted for mid-2028. The study is pre-feasibility, and the plan still needs financing, approvals, and customer agreements.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil's presidential runoff on Sunday, beating Senator Flávio Bolsonaro for a fourth term that begins January 5, 2027. With 97.69% of ballots counted, Lula had 51.74% and Bolsonaro 48.25%. Brazil has the world's second-largest rare earth reserves, after China. Its only commercial producer, Serra Verde, was acquired by USA Rare Earth. Lula's win means the country's new critical minerals policy, launched in September, stays in place. It lets the government scrutinize changes of corporate control and international supply agreements that could affect national security. It also offers tax credits of up to 20% for processing and refining, capped at 1 billion reais a year from 2030 to 2034. As of June, foreign-linked companies held 42% of Brazil's 2,727 rare earth exploration requests, led by Australia with 695 and the United States with 347. Juan Ignacio Guzmán, CEO of GEM Mining Consulting, said Brazil “is currently viewed as a strategic partner of the United States in the global race for critical minerals.”

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The ASX-listed company raised its Indicated resource at the Monte Alto deposit in Bahia, Brazil, to about 3.5 million tonnes grading 10.7% total rare earth oxides. Indicated material makes up 87% of contained TREO in the ultra-high-grade estimate. Combined Indicated and Inferred resources stand at 4.4 million tonnes at 9.9% TREO. A concentrate-sales study is targeted for completion by the end of 2026.

— Brazilian Rare Earths, October 26

SMM's afternoon comment on October 27 said PrNd oxide prices held steady at morning levels. Suppliers lowered PrNd alloy quotes slightly. Downstream inquiries for both were mostly tentative, and actual orders stayed limited.

— Shanghai Metals Market, October 27

The Supreme Court of Western Australia approved Critical Metals Corp.'s acquisition of European Lithium on October 26. The schemes become effective once the court orders are lodged with ASIC, expected October 27. New CRML shares are due to be issued on November 5 and to start trading on Nasdaq on November 6, subject to change. The combined company holds the Tanbreez rare earth project in Greenland and the Wolfsberg lithium project in Austria.

— Critical Metals Corp.

Austrade launched its largest Australian Critical Minerals Prospectus to date, with 94 projects. It added 29 projects since February, 20 upstream and 9 midstream, bringing the midstream total to 36. The prospectus is designed to attract foreign capital.

— Austrade, via Australian Mining, October 27