28,000 Parts in 1,400 Weapons Systems Depend on Four Minerals China Controls

DEFENSE

28,000 Parts. 1,400 Weapons. Four Minerals China Dominates

1956. The Special Studies Project.

A young Harvard professor named Henry Kissinger sat at a long table on the 56th floor, surrounded by generals, diplomats, and the Rockefeller brothers. Their project had no public name yet. They called it the Special Studies Project. Its job was to answer one question: where is America most exposed?

Over three years they mapped every crack in the country's armor — nuclear, economic, diplomatic. The reports shaped a generation of Cold War policy. Then the project ended and the name went quiet for half a century.

This week, that name came back. Eric Schmidt — the former Google CEO — runs a think tank modeled on the 1956 original. He calls it the Special Competitive Studies Project. And his team just released a white paper that does what Kissinger's team did 70 years ago: it maps where America is exposed. The answer, this time, is rare earths.

Using AI from the supply chain firm Exiger, the SCSP scanned nearly nine million military parts across 3,000 weapons systems. They found more than 28,000 parts in 1,400 weapons systems that depend on just four minerals China dominates: antimony, gallium, germanium, and tungsten. The Virginia-class submarine — America's only fast-attack nuclear sub in production — tops the list. Each one needs 9,200 pounds of rare earths and more than 300 parts tied to those four metals alone. The B-2 stealth bomber needs 782. An F-35 fighter jet carries 900 pounds of rare earths in every airframe.

That is not a future risk. Kit Conklin, Exiger's chief strategy officer, told The War Zone the crisis is already here. Companies are submitting export license applications to China and getting nothing back. No approvals, no denials. Just silence.

The timing matters. China's one-year pause on expanded export controls expires November 10 — four days from now. If the pause lapses, the rules that were suspended last year snap back. Tighter licensing on five more rare earth elements. An extraterritorial rule that reaches products made outside China. And restrictions on the technology itself — mining, refining, magnet-making, even recycling.

A recent war game found the U.S. could not replace ships, planes, and missiles lost in combat because of casting and forging shortfalls. The Pentagon has proposed investing $2 billion over five years to fix that. It is not enough. In 1956, Kissinger's team found the gaps and the country filled them. The question now is whether 70 years of warning has made any difference.

                        Neodymium
                      

                    $175/kg
                  

                    ▲ 17.5% YTD
                  

                        Praseodymium
                      

                    $182/kg
                  

                    ▲ 26.3% YTD
                  

                        Dysprosium
                      

                    $2,166/kg
                  

                    ▲ 377% YTD
                  

                        Terbium
                      

                    $4,594/kg
                  

                    ▲ 132% YTD
                  

      Source: Strategic Metals Invest · Western retail · Nov 4 · USD/kg · YTD vs Jan 1
    

La

Ce

Pr

Nd

Sm

Eu

Gd

Tb

Dy

Ho

Er

Yb

Trump: “Whoever wins AI, wins”

“Whoever wins AI, wins.”

That’s how President Trump sums up America’s AI race with China.

But what decides who wins the AI race?

I believe all it comes down to a radical “light-speed” technology…

Turning AI as we know it into “Accelerated AI”…

Making it 100 times faster…

And 100 times more energy efficient.

The stocks at the center of it already ripped 133%, 217%, and even 320% — in a few short months.

And it’s just getting started.

Click here to see the light-speed technology that could decide the AI race — and get my #1 pick, free.

Also This Week

Export Controls

Three Dates Matter for China’s Export Pause, and No Extension Is in Writing

Analyst Tamás Földvári laid out the dates in a November 2 analysis. November 10 is when the suspension of six 2025 Chinese measures ends. The announcement that set that date has no automatic renewal, so only a new announcement can move it. January 10, 2027 is the extension date named by China’s Commerce Ministry on September 28 and by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on September 23. It is not yet in any published legal text. November 27 is when China’s separate suspension of its ban on gallium, germanium, and antimony exports to the U.S. runs out. As of November 2, neither side had published an extension. Földvári argues that the uncertainty itself creates costs, from stockpiling to rewriting contract clauses, before any rule changes.

Recycling

Fraunhofer Tests Two Ways to Pull Neodymium From Old Hard Drives

Fraunhofer IKTS and TU Bergakademie Freiberg are testing two processes to recover rare earths from the magnets in discarded computer hard drives. One uses solid-state chlorination with ammonium chloride. The other is an electrochemical process that runs powdered magnet waste in dilute sulfuric acid, extracts boron first, then recovers neodymium and iron. The work is part of NEO-CYCLE, a Horizon Europe project that runs from 2024 to 2028. Sandra Pavón, who heads the hydrometallurgical recycling group at IKTS, says: “We aim to recover rare earth elements from electronic waste and use them in high-value products.” A pilot plant is in planning, with no timeline yet.

Prices

China’s Price Index Slips While Ex-China Dysprosium Costs 12 to 26 Times More

China’s Rare Earth Industry Association reported its price index at 256.3 on November 2, down 0.77% from October 28. Inside China, dysprosium oxide trades at $212–$218 per kilogram. Outside China, the same oxide is assessed at $2,500 to $5,500 per kilogram, a premium of roughly 12 to 26 times. Rare Earth Exchanges notes that the ex-China premium persists. Light rare earths outside China are soft too: Shanghai Metals Market has PrNd oxide FOB at $115–$121 per kilogram, down $3 on the week.

Elon Musk’s Fourth Wealth Window Set to Open by November 30

This Cybercab you see in this image is taking me to Elon Musk’s new project…

Which he called “the most epic AI project in history.”

This is so big that I believe it will open a brand-new “generational wealth window…”

And whenever Elon opens one of those windows, people get rich.

“There’s no question that right now it’s a crisis for a lot of companies.”

              – Kit Conklin, Chief Strategy and Global Affairs Officer, Exiger · The War Zone, November 2026
            

60

Neodymium

144.24

More Than 9,000 Pounds per Submarine, and Little Backup Outside China

Neodymium is the metal that makes permanent magnets strong. Mix it with iron and boron and you get NdFeB, the strongest commercial magnet material. It sits in EV motors, wind turbine generators, and the hard drives in old computers. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates that a single Virginia-class submarine contains more than 4.5 tons of rare earths, or over 9,000 pounds. That is separate from this week’s SCSP count, which tracks four other minerals. Neodymium sits at $175/kg in the West, up 17.5% this year, while dysprosium is up 377%. Neodymium is a light rare earth, so it is more abundant than the heavy ones. The problem is not scarcity. China refines roughly 90% of the world’s rare earths, and the U.S. ban on Chinese-origin magnets in defense contracts takes effect on January 1, 2027.

AROUND THE MARKET

The B-2 Bomber Relies on 782 Rare Earth Parts

The same SCSP report that flagged the Virginia-class submarine also mapped the B-2 Spirit. America's only nuclear-armed stealth bomber until the B-21 Raider enters service next year depends on 782 individual parts containing critical minerals that China dominates. The F/A-18 family tops the list for steel castings alone, with 3,800 parts.

— The War Zone / SCSP

USA Rare Earth to Report Q3 Results on November 9

USA Rare Earth announced it will release third-quarter results after the close on Monday. Analysts at Zacks expect $6.5 million in revenue and a loss. The company completed its $2.8 billion Serra Verde merger in September and installed new CEO Thras Moraitis on October 1. This will be his first quarter steering the combined company.

— GlobeNewswire / Zacks

Ex-China PrNd Oxide Falls to $115–$121/kg

Shanghai Metals Market's weekly review shows light rare earths falling outside China. PrNd oxide FOB dropped $3 per kilogram, terbium oxide FOB lost $6, and terbium metal slipped $15. Lanthanum and cerium held steady. Demand remains thin ahead of the November 10 deadline, with most buyers waiting to see which rules apply.

— Shanghai Metals Market, Nov 2

Full Measure Airs Rare Earth Investigation from Madrid

Sharyl Attkisson aired a segment called Rare Earth Envy on Sinclair's Full Measure this week. She reported from Madrid on how Europe is trying to close the gap with China in critical minerals. The piece covers the full dependency chain and what European governments are doing about it.

— Full Measure with Sharyl Attkisson, Nov 1